How the Fed Decision Could Impact Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP Prices
The Fed Decision is the big event for crypto today. Traders are waiting for the Federal Reserve's rate call and a press conference from Chair Kevin Warsh.
Before it, the crypto market gained 1.54% in 24 hours to near $2.71 trillion. Bitcoin is just under $81,000, Ether is above $2,350, and SOL is near $102.
XRP and DOGE rose about 2.43% and 3%. BNB is up 1%.
What Are the Odds of a Fed Rate Hike Today?
The current target rate is 3.75% to 4.00%. CME data shows a 90.6% chance the Fed holds. A hike has a 9.4% chance, and a cut sits at 0.0%.
The mood has changed fast. One month ago, a hike was the bigger bet.
Outcome | Now | 1 Day Ago (26 Oct) | 1 Week Ago (21 Oct) | 1 Month Ago (28 Sep) |
Hold (3.75% to 4.00%) | 90.6% | 88.9% | 84.5% | 29.1% |
Hike (4.00% to 4.25%) | 9.4% | 11.1% | 15.5% | 70.9% |
Hold odds jumped from 29.1% to 90.6% in a month. Most of the surprise may already be in prices.
Is Bitcoin Going Up or Down Before the Fed Meeting?
Bitcoin rose nearly 1.50% and trades near $81,049. That wipes out part of the weekend drop.
The daily chart shows a descending channel. Price broke out from the $63,000 to $65,000 zone toward $87,400. Then it made lower highs and lower lows.
The RSI is near 46.64. That is below 50, so momentum looks weak, but not oversold.
Why Is Ethereum Struggling Below Its Key Averages?
Ethereum gained 1.90% and trades near $2,365. Still, it sits under the 20-day EMA at $2,425 and the 50-day EMA at $2,451.
It was rejected near $2,750 to $2,800 earlier. The RSI is around 39.
Buyers need to defend $2,300 to $2,320. If they do not, ETH could slide toward $2,250 and $2,200.
Asset | Price Now | Support | Resistance | RSI |
Bitcoin | About $81,049 | $79,000 to $80,000, then $76,000 to $78,000 | $83,000 to $84,000, then $87,400 | 46.64 |
Ethereum | About $2,365 | $2,320 to $2,300, then $2,250 and $2,200 | $2,425 to $2,450, then $2,500 to $2,550 | About 39 |
These are chart levels, not promises.
What Is the XRP Outlook After the TD Sequential Buy Signal?
Ali Charts says the TD Sequential flashed a buy signal on the XRP 3-day chart. The latest candle carries a 9 marker, which completes the setup.
The last three similar signals were followed by rebounds. The chart also marks a 71.88% jump from the August low.
Signal | Rebound Marked on Chart |
Earlier signal 1 | +31.26% |
Earlier signal 2 | +24.38% |
Earlier signal 3 | +18.65% |
August low | +71.88% |
If $1.25 holds, a move toward $1.40 is possible. If it breaks while whales keep taking profits, $0.98 could come next.
Past results do not guarantee what happens next.
Are Crypto ETFs Seeing Inflows or Outflows?
Data is as of October 27. Bitcoin and Ether funds saw small one-day inflows. The 30-day picture is weaker.
Asset | 1-Day Net Flow | 30-Day Net Flow | Cumulative Flow | Net Assets | % of Market Cap |
BTC | +$24.54M | -$253.51M | -$8.90B | $38.42B | 2.36% |
ETH | +$33.06M | -$1.31B | -$360.18M | $5.72B | 1.99% |
SOL | -$19.16M | -$92.59M | +$1.51B | $1.54B | 2.57% |
XRP | $0 | +$14.86M | +$1.81B | $1.50B | 1.79% |
XRP is the only one with positive 30-day flows. BTC and ETH updates are still pending.
How Many Crypto Traders Got Liquidated in 24 Hours?
CoinGlass says 61,225 traders were liquidated. Total losses reached $148.67M.
Shorts took the hit. They made up 73% of the total, and long positions made up 27%.
Period | Total | Longs | Shorts |
1 hour | $1.57M | $696.15K | $870.92K |
4 hours | $13.49M | $3.66M | $9.82M |
12 hours | $60.01M | $12.11M | $47.90M |
24 hours | $148.67M | $40.09M | $108.59M |
ETH led with $37.20M, and 83.5% of it was shorts. BTC followed with $32.37M, with 82.4% shorts.
ZEC saw $8.45M, Q saw $4.72M, SNDK saw $3.97M, and SOL saw $3.40M.
The biggest single order was $9.39M on Binance, an ETHUSDT short at $2,348.18. Binance had 46.5% of all liquidations.
What Does the Fed Decision Mean for Crypto?
A hold is what most traders expect. That could keep things calm, though the tone of Warsh's press conference may matter more than the rate itself.
A surprise hike is a small risk at 9.4%. If it happens, risk assets could feel pressure.
Bitcoin needs to hold $79,000 to $80,000. Ether needs $2,300. XRP is watching $1.25.
Nobody knows how the market will react. The Fed Decision is one input, and ETF flows and liquidations will also shape the next move.
Disclaimer
This article is for information only. It is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Crypto prices are very volatile, and you can lose money. Technical levels are estimates, not guarantees. Do your own research and speak with a licensed financial advisor before you invest.
