PAX Gold Price Prediction: PAXG Rally 3% After US Election Results?
Can PAXG break $4,063? It is 0.6% away. PAXG, a token that tracks one ounce of gold, jumped 3% to $4,039.62 and reclaimed $4,000, a level it lost on October 30.
In this PAX Gold Price Prediction, the daily chart shows a quick recovery from the $3,880 area. Price is just above the 20 EMA but still under the 50 EMA, and $4,063.33 is the next test.
Market data checked on November 4, 2026, at 15:25 IST.
Why is PAX Gold price up today?
PAX Gold price today is up 3% to $4,039.62 in 24h, outperforming Bitcoin's +2.26% gain, primarily driven by a surge in the underlying gold price amid a weaker U.S. dollar and shifting macro expectations following the U.S. midterm elections.
Primary reason: Spot gold rallied 2.64% to $4,031.98, as PAXG's price is directly backed by physical gold. The move was fueled by a falling dollar and macro uncertainty after Democratic election gains.
Secondary reasons: Positive beta to a rising broader crypto market (Bitcoin up 2.26%) and sector rotation into gold-backed tokens, with Tether Gold (XAUT) also gaining 2.82%.
Crypto News Today: PAXG Liquidation Data
A liquidation is a forced close of a leveraged trade when the trader can no longer cover losses. Longs bet on a rise, and shorts bet on a fall.
Window | Total Liquidated | Long | Short |
12h | $67.76K | $38.83K | $28.93K |
24h | $81.37K | $42.03K | $39.34K |
Source: Data From CoinGlass
Both sides were hit. Longs took about 52% of the $81.37K liquidated over 24 hours, and about 83% of the total came in the last 12 hours. This fits a candle with a 3% range, where a dip hit longs and the rally hit shorts.
The 24-hour total is about twice the $40.39K in our November 3 article, but the amounts are still small.
Is the PAXG Rally Linked to the US Election?
$PAXG rose about 3% from today’s low of $3,923.45 to $4,039.62, and the daily candle is up 2.55%. The US midterm elections were held on November 3. Gold is often called a safe-haven asset, and some investors look to it when political outcomes are uncertain.
The timing may be a coincidence. $PAXG also tracks gold, so Fed expectations, the US dollar and crypto-market flows can move it. The key level is $4,063.33, and a daily close above it would be the first real sign of strength.
PAX Gold Price Prediction: Technical Analysis
$PAXG peaked near $4,700 in August, then fell in steps. On October 30, it dropped through the floor it held since June, a level near $3,960, and reached a low near $3,880. In our October 31 article, that low was the support to watch. It held.
After a few days of small candles, today's candle opened at $3,939.23, dipped to $3,923.45 and rose to $4,042.02 before printing $4,039.62. It was still open, so the close can change.
A move below support that quickly reverses is called a failed breakdown. This one is not confirmed until the price holds above the old floor.
An EMA, or exponential moving average, weights recent prices more heavily. Price is just above the 20 EMA at $4,022.43 and under the 50 EMA at $4,120.12.
PAXG Forecast: Support and Resistance Levels
Type | Level |
Highest marked level | $4,700.23 |
Resistance 3 | $4,402.20 |
Resistance 2 | $4,200.55 |
Resistance 1 | $4,063.33 |
Immediate support | $3,900.14 |
Deeper support | $3,800.60 |
Bull case: A daily close above $4,063.33, about 1% higher, then $4,200.55, about 4% higher, would show buyers regaining control.
Bear case: If $PAXG closes below $3,900.14, about 3% lower, the price could slide about 6% toward $3,800.60.
$PAXG Scenarios and Invalidation (November 4, 2026)
Scenario | Trigger | Likely Outcome | Invalidation |
Bull | Close above $4,063.33 | Move toward $4,200.55 | Close below $3,900.14 |
Base | Range of $3,900.14 to $4,063.33 | Sideways around $4,000 | Break of either level |
Bear | Close below $3,900.14 | Slide toward $3,800.60 | Close back above $3,900.14 |
PAX Gold Price Prediction: Can $PAXG Reach $4,700.23?
It would take a gain of about 16% from $4,039.62. Any PAXG price prediction toward that level needs more than one green candle, since $PAXG must clear $4,063.33, $4,200.55 and $4,402.20 first.
Gold Price Prediction: Analyst View
The recovery is a good sign, but one candle does not change a trend that has pointed down since August. The price is still under the 50 EMA.
The level to watch is $4,063.33. A daily close above it would be the first real sign of strength, while a close below $3,900.14 would undo the recovery.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and isn't financial advice. Crypto and gold markets are volatile. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions involving PAXG.
