These 3 Big Reasons Will Decide XRP's Price Direction This September

XRP is trading near $1.35 today, down about 6% over the past week. Three things will likely decide the next big move in this XRP price prediction: US payroll data on Friday, the Fed's rate decision, and the CLARITY Act vote.

XRP slipped below a key support zone in late August. Traders are now watching whether the token holds its floor or falls toward $1.27.

This XRP news today roundup breaks down all three factors, plus the charts and exchange data shaping where XRP price goes next.

Why Is XRP Price Up Today?

XRP failed to close above its 50-week EMA for a second straight week. Trader ChartNerd says that failure opens the door to a deeper pullback.

The next support in that scenario sits at the weekly 20 EMA, currently near $1.27. On the four-hour chart, XRP swept its $1.36 floor twice this week.

Price rejected near $1.43 and printed a lower high below a bearish trend line around $1.39. That's a shift from the strength XRP showed in late August.

What Happened to XRP in August 2026?

XRP touched a multi-month high of $1.70 on August 22. That move came after Bitcoin jumped from under $65,000 to $80,000, pulling the wider market higher.

XRP gained 70% in three days during that stretch, recovering from a rough start to August when it briefly dropped under $1.00. XRP ended the month near $1.40, still up 30% for August despite the late pullback.

ChartNerd flagged the risk early, warning that a weekly close below the 50 EMA would signal a larger retracement. That's exactly what followed, with XRP now down roughly 22% from its August peak.

Will US Payroll Data Move XRP Price This Week?

US payrolls data is due out on Friday, and it lands right before the Fed's September 16 meeting. A strong jobs report tends to support the case for a rate hike, while a weak report can boost odds of a hold.

For XRP price, this report matters because it will likely shape trader positioning heading into next week. A hot payrolls print could add pressure on risk assets like XRP, while a soft number may ease some of that pressure.

Traders watching this XRP price prediction should treat Friday's data as the first of three key catalysts this month, ahead of the CLARITY Act vote and the Fed decision.

Will the Fed Rate Decision Move XRP Price?

The Fed meets on September 16, 2026. Market pricing currently shows a 37.7% chance rates stay at 350–375 basis points and a 62.3% chance of a 25-basis-point hike to 375–400 bps.

There is a 0% probability priced in for a rate cut. That's a notably hawkish setup for crypto markets heading into mid-September.

Higher odds of a hike generally weigh on risk assets, including XRP and the broader crypto market. US payrolls data due Friday could shift these odds further before the meeting.

Will the CLARITY Act Affect XRP Price?

This is the biggest wildcard for XRP this month. The Senate left for recess on August 8 with the CLARITY Act still stalled.

The bill would classify XRP and other tokens as digital commodities. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has since filed a cloture motion to push the bill toward a vote.

That cloture vote is scheduled for September 15 and needs 60 votes to pass. SEC Chair Paul Atkins has publicly backed the effort, calling the SEC's new Regulation Crypto Assets proposal a historic step toward making the US the "crypto capital of the world."

If the cloture motion passes and a final vote date follows quickly, that could act as a strong catalyst for XRP price. It would also coincide with a separate shareholder vote on Evernorth's planned Nasdaq listing.

XRP Exchange Reserves Hit Lowest Since 2024

On-chain data shows 500 million XRP has left Binance in under a year, pushing exchange reserves to their lowest point since February 2024.

This is happening even as XRP price sits 63% below its highs. Coins leaving exchanges while the price is down is often read as accumulation by long-term holders.

Fund flow data tells a mixed story. Bitwise clients pulled $7.2 million out of XRP products yesterday, the first outflow after a strong August run.

Other issuers stayed flat with zero net flow. The cumulative total across XRP investment products still holds at $1.68 billion.

XRP Price Prediction: Key Levels to Watch

Chart analysts are eyeing a pattern that formed after XRP's prior 56% rally, followed by a long descending-channel consolidation. Price is now compressing near the lower half of that channel.

Analyst Ali points to a separate zone between $1.31 and $1.38, where more than 4.8 billion XRP tokens were accumulated. He says an hourly close above $1.38 could confirm a bullish flag breakout and put $2 back in focus.

None of these levels are guaranteed. XRP needs to break and hold above the descending channel rather than briefly wick through it for the bullish case to gain confirmation.

Can XRP Price Hit $2 This Month?

A move to $2 is possible but not confirmed. It would likely require a clean breakout above $1.43 with strong volume, alongside supportive news from Friday's payrolls report, the Fed meeting, or the CLARITY Act vote.

If XRP loses the $1.33–$1.35 support zone instead, the path toward $1.27 becomes more likely. Traders following this XRP price prediction should watch Friday's payrolls data, the September 15 Senate vote, and the September 16 Fed decision closely, since any of the three could set the tone for XRP price through the rest of the month.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.