Why XRP is Going Down: Will it Hit $3 Before ProShares ETF Launch

Why XRP is Going Down Today and Will it Go Back Up? Technical Analysis

In the past seven days, XRP has seen a sharp drop of 6.82%. Right now, the token is trading at $2.17 after falling 1.32% in just one day. The coin’s market cap is sitting at $127.47 billion, and it has a 24-hour trading volume of $1.87 billion. 

Source: CoinMarketCap

Why XRP is Going Down?

XRP Released from Escrow: On 3rd May, Whale Alert cited that Ripple released 500 million token (valued at $1.1 billion) from escrow. Alongside this, 300 million (around $660 million) were moved from escrow to an unknown wallet, and another 200 million (about $440 million) went to a different unknown wallet. 

Source: Whale Alert

This sudden release increased the circulating supply, which often puts downward pressure on price.

XRP ETF Delay: The U.S. SEC has postponed its decision on Franklin Templeton’s spot ETF until June 17, 2025. The ETF was first submitted in March and was supposed to be reviewed by May 3. While the delay isn’t a rejection, it has disappointed the crypto community. On top of that, ProShares plans to launch a futures ETF for XRP on May 14, but an earlier filing mistakenly suggested it would launch on April 30. This caused confusion and frustration among investors.

Polymarket Prediction: According to Polymarket, there’s only a 42% chance that the altcoin will break above $2.20 by May 9. 

Source: Polymarket

This shows that many in the community are losing confidence in the token’s short-term price strength, partly due to the SEC delays and general market uncertainty.

Will XRP Go Back Up?

Even though the coin has faced some setbacks, there are signs that the sentiment around the coin could turn positive again.

ProShares Futures XRP ETF Launch: ProShares is getting ready to launch its futures ETF on May 14. While it was delayed, this event is still seen as good news for the community, as it could bring more attention and trading activity to the altcoin.

Ripple UAE Partnership: Ripple has become the first blockchain payments provider to be licensed by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). This enables Ripple to provide regulated cross-border payments in the UAE. The nation boasts a massive $400 billion trade market and $40 billion in remittances, which may unlock new opportunities for Ripple. Ripple's data further indicates that 85% of Middle Eastern banks have faith in crypto, and 97% of businesses in the region are convinced crypto will have an effect. Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin will ensure secure, regulated transactions. Ripple has more than 60 global licenses and 20% of its clients based in Dubai, making it strongly positioned in the region. 

XRP Price Prediction

From the technical perspective, it trades at a level of about $2.18. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 54, which is just over the midline. This indicates that the coin has some weak bullish strength but is not overbought. The MACD indicator reflects a weak bullish signal, as the MACD line is slightly above the signal line. This indicates that there are early indications of strength in the upward direction but is no guarantee yet.

Source: TradingView

If the price moves above the resistance of $2.50, it may move towards $2.80 or even $3.00, provided the RSI moves towards 70 and the trend of MACD becomes stronger. But if XRP falls below $2.00, the price may fall to $1.80 or $1.50. A declining RSI below 50 and a bearish MACD would validate this risk.

For the time being, the altcoin is at a critical level, and the traders need to closely observe the technical indicators to know where the price is going next. The price forecast indicates it is at a turning point, and it will rely on technical indicators as well as market news to determine its next major move.