SpaceX Stock (SPCX) Prediction After OpenAI Ends Cursor Partnership

SpaceX stock has had a rough summer. Shares trade under the ticker SPCX on the Nasdaq, and they sit at around $141 as of late August 2026. That is roughly 37% below the $225.64 all-time high the stock hit shortly after its June IPO.

Two separate headlines are moving SPCX this week. Morgan Stanley just reiterated a bullish call on the stock. OpenAI just announced it is cutting off Cursor, the coding tool SpaceX acquired earlier this month. Here is what both stories mean for SPCX right now.

Why Is SpaceX Stock Down From Its IPO High?

SpaceX went public in June 2026 and shot up fast, then gave a lot of that back. Some of that pullback is normal for a hot new listing.

There is also a real supply issue. A large block of insider shares unlocked in late August, and more lock-up periods expire through the rest of 2026. More shares available to sell can pressure a stock price, especially one that ran up as fast as SPCX did.

What Did Morgan Stanley Say About SpaceX Stock?

On August 25, SpaceX announced a $100 billion spaceport project in Vermilion Parish, Louisiana, called Starbase Louisiana.

As per a tweet on X, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas responded by reiterating an Overweight rating and a $300 price target, 113% above the stock's price at the time.

The note made a few key points. SpaceX is planning 15 launch pads companywide, and the bank's own 2040 forecast of 5,800 annual launches and $3.5 trillion in revenue could be supported by just eight pads.

Louisiana's Gulf-facing location also opens southward launch routes to sun-synchronous polar orbit, which matters for satellites doing orbital AI computing.

Jonas was not dismissive of the risk. He noted the $100 billion figure is spread over roughly a decade and requires about $80 billion a year in average net debt issuance to fund.

What Is the Average SPCX Price Target Among Analysts?

Morgan Stanley's $300 target is high but not alone in being bullish. Across roughly 30 research firms, the average SPCX target sits near $216, ranging from a low of $75 to a high of $450.

That is a wide spread. Morningstar's independent valuation puts fair value closer to $62 and treats the orbital data center scenario as a low-probability outcome.

Bull and bear cases here sit nearly $600 apart, which usually means continued volatility no matter which way the stock eventually breaks.

What Does the SPCX Chart Look Like Right Now?

SPCX has been forming a rising channel after breaking above a longer descending trendline, with several green daily candles into late August pointing to steady buying pressure.

Traders are watching $150 as the level to beat. A daily close above it could open the door to $160-165, and a move through there could bring $175-180 into view.

On the downside, $135-138 is being treated as support, with a break below likely bringing $125-130 back into play. None of these levels are guaranteed; they simply reflect where chart watchers are focused.

Why Did OpenAI End Its Cursor Partnership With SpaceX?

SpaceX closed its acquisition of Cursor, the AI coding tool, on August 14. On August 28, OpenAI said it is winding down its contract to supply Cursor with AI models, with a proposed shutoff date of November 12.

OpenAI's stated reason is that it cannot be confident SpaceX will use its technology within OpenAI's terms of service, citing past experience with other Musk-run companies, including Twitter and xAI.

OpenAI said it has worked with Cursor for nearly four years and holds the team in high regard, but framed the decision as necessary given new accountability standards for its upcoming model.

Reuters reported that SpaceX did not immediately respond to a request for comment outside business hours.

This does not directly change SPCX's financials the way the Louisiana plan does, but it signals that SpaceX's push into AI coding tools is drawing scrutiny from former partners.

What Are Traders Saying About SPCX's Next Move?

Away from bank research, some retail traders are drawing comparisons to Rocket Lab's (RKLB) early trading pattern, and one version of this thesis lays out a specific staged roadmap.

It is worth walking through as an example of the thinking, though it is one person's technical read, not a verified forecast.

• The flush: A drop from the current $141.50 area down toward a $70-80 floor, described as a capitulation move.

• The base: Roughly 60-90 days of quiet, range-bound trading between $80 and $112, framed as the market losing interest before a real bottom can form.

• The pivot: A reclaim of the $112 level, which in this framework would be the first real signal that the downtrend has turned.

• The expansion: A longer-term target above $300 by early 2027, roughly four times the proposed floor.

The reasoning behind this view is that real bottoms tend to form quietly, without much volume or attention, rather than on an obvious headline. 

Under this logic, waiting for pullbacks into the $85-115 zone is treated as a more disciplined entry than buying into strength.

This is one trader's technical framework, not analyst research, and the $70 floor sits below even Morningstar's bear case of $62 and the sell-side low target of $75. It is worth weighing alongside the sell-side views above, not treating it as the base case.

Is SpaceX Stock a Buy Right Now?

That depends on time horizon and risk tolerance. The bull case rests on Starship's launch cadence and a trillion-dollar revenue story playing out over the next decade, though none of the Louisiana facility's revenue arrives before 2029.

The bear case includes heavy debt-funded spending, an unproven orbital computing business, and a wide gap between analyst targets that points to continued sharp moves.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Price targets from analysts, as well as technical chart levels and social media commentary, reflect opinions and estimates, not guarantees. Past performance does not indicate future results. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.