SpaceX Stock Unlock Sept. 24: The Price Level That Decides Everything
SpaceX stock closed down 3.15% at $143.49 on Tuesday, extending a roughly 2% drop from the session before.
The slide comes just over a week before a major share unlock and days before a high-stakes Starship test flight, two events now colliding on the calendar.
This article covers the latest SpaceX news driving the move, then breaks down the SpaceX stock price prediction based on the current chart.
SpaceX Stock News: What Is Happening Right Now
Starship Flight 14 Set for September 22
SpaceX is scheduled to launch the 14th test flight of Starship from Starbase, Texas, on September 22, with September 23 listed as a backup date, according to the FAA's current operations plan.
CFO Bret Johnsen said last week that Flight 14 will be the first Starship mission to generate revenue, carrying production-grade Version 3 Starlink satellites into orbit.
Speaking Monday at the All-In Summit in Los Angeles, CEO Elon Musk said the flight will be the last test before SpaceX attempts to catch the Starship spacecraft with its launch tower.
"We've got flight 14 coming up, of Starship, and this will be the last flight before we attempt to catch the ship," Musk said. "So if this flight goes well, then on flight 15 we will try to catch the ship."
Musk also said SpaceX could attempt to refly both the Starship vehicle and booster later this year, or more likely in early 2027. The company has already proven it can reuse Falcon 9 boosters but has not yet reflown a Starship vehicle or completed a tower catch of the spacecraft.
SpaceX Falcon 9 Cadence Stays Aggressive
Away from Starship, SpaceX's core Falcon 9 business kept up a fast pace through September. The company launched its 700th Falcon rocket on September 13, carrying the final three O3b mPOWER satellites for SES, a milestone that marked SLC-40's 400th orbital launch, 345 of them flown by SpaceX.
Days earlier, on September 9, SpaceX launched a classified payload for the U.S. Space Force, and on September 5 it flew its 80th Starlink mission of the year, a mission that also carried the 2,000th Starlink satellite launched in 2026.
SpaceX has also begun shifting Starlink missions to its West Coast pad as it clears space at its Florida site for the Starship-Super Heavy program.
SpaceX Stock Unlock Adds Pressure Into September 24
Unlike a typical IPO with one 180-day lockup, SpaceX's prospectus spread insider selling eligibility across roughly a dozen separate dates.
The last unlock, on September 9, coincided with a 3.9% drop in SpaceX stock price, when up to 319 million Class A shares became eligible for trading, worth close to $49 billion at recent prices, with another 59.1 million affiliate shares unlocking the next day.
A bigger tranche now lands on September 24: up to 328.4 million shares become eligible, with matching tranches again on October 9 and October 24.
A far larger release of up to 1.3 billion shares, about 28% of the relevant share pool, follows two trading days after SpaceX reports third-quarter earnings, expected in late October or early November.
A final tranche of roughly 800 million shares unlocks December 8, the 180-day mark, when the remaining non-Musk insider float becomes eligible.
By the end of 2026, roughly 4.9 billion SpaceX shares are expected to be freely tradable, an overhang analysts say could cap rallies even as the company delivers operationally.
What Wall Street Is Saying
Not every analyst reads SpaceX stock the same way. Jeffrey Wlodarczak of Pivotal Research Group carries a $220 price target, but says it depends entirely on execution.
"Our target is a call on reuse of 20 to 50 flights per vehicle, cheap refurb, fast turnaround," he said. "If that is solved, the rest of the model can happen. If it is not, SPCX is a different and much smaller company."
The average one-year Wall Street price target on the stock sits near $222.42, well above where shares trade today. SpaceX pays no dividend, carries a trailing 12-month loss per share of $1.06, and is expected to report third-quarter results around November 3.
Where the Chart Stands Today
On the four-hour chart, SPCX has been climbing along a rising trendline from the August low near $130, forming a pattern of higher lows into a test of $150.98, the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. That level has capped the stock's last few attempts to push higher.
The trendline is currently supporting SpaceX stock price around $143 to $145. A clean four-hour close above $150.98, backed by rising volume and an upward-turning EMA, would open the door to $165.24, then $179.49.
A break below the trendline and then $140 to $142 would shift the picture toward $133.34, the next major Fibonacci support. Losing that level would expose the $120 to $125 zone, with the August 3 low of $104.83 as the deeper floor.
RSI sits at 46.6, a neutral reading that leaves room to move in either direction.
SpaceX Stock Price Prediction Table
Level | Price | What It Means |
Resistance | $150.98 | Needs a clean close above for a breakout |
Trendline/decision zone | $146 to $150 | Where the current recovery is being tested |
Current price | $143 to $145 | Sits right at the rising trendline |
Downside target 1 | $133.34 | Major Fibonacci support |
Downside target 2 | $120 to $125 | Deeper warning zone if $133.34 fails |
Upside target 1 | $165.24 | Next Fibonacci resistance after breakout |
Upside target 2 | $179.49 | Extended bullish target |
Bullish and Bearish Scenarios for SPCX Stock
If SpaceX stock price holds the trendline and closes above $150.98 with volume confirmation, the next stops on the chart are $165.24 and then $179.49.
If the trendline breaks and price falls below $140 to $142, the chart points toward $133.34 first, then the $120 to $125 zone if selling accelerates.
Is the September 24 Unlock the Real Story?
Share unlocks do not move a stock in a straight line, and SpaceX has already shown it can recover fast, rallying from $104.83 back into the $140s in a matter of weeks. But the unlock is not happening in isolation. It lands just two days after Starship Flight 14, meaning sentiment from the launch could shape how the market absorbs the new supply.
A clean close above $150.98 would suggest buyers are absorbing the unlock.
A break of the trendline and $140 would suggest the opposite. Either way, this is a technical read of the chart, not a guarantee of what SpaceX stock price does next.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Figures and statements are quoted as reported publicly and do not guarantee future price movement. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
