Why Bitcoin, ETH, XRP Falling Despite Fed Keeps Interest Rates Steady?
The Fed held interest rates steady this week, but crypto did not celebrate for long. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP all slipped after the decision.
BTC jumped above $81,500 right after the announcement. Then the mood changed. Bitcoin dropped below 80,000 by almost 8.60% in October, and traders are bracing for monthly options expiry on October 30.
Hawkish Warsh Turns the Rate Pause Into a Warning
The FOMC voted 10-2 to keep rates unchanged. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack wanted a 25 bps hike instead.
Chair Kevin Warsh then took a hawkish tone. He pointed to higher inflation, oil prices lifted by the US-Iran war, and an unclear path for policy. He would not rule out more action.
Traders moved fast. CME FedWatch now shows an 80.40% chance of a hike on December 9.
Dec 9 Meeting Outcome | Now | 1 Day Ago | 1 Week Ago | 1 Month Ago |
375-400 bps (hold) | 19.6% | 16.2% | 22.5% | 8.4% |
400-425 bps (25 bps hike) | 80.4% | 78.3% | 73.3% | 49.4% |
425-450 bps | 0.0% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 42.2% |
The US 10-year Treasury yield moved slightly above 5% on Thursday. The dollar index (DXY) also climbed back toward 102.23. Both can weigh on risk assets like crypto.
PCE Inflation Data Is the Next Test
All eyes are on US PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred gauge. Core PCE is expected to rise 0.3% month over month in September.
Annual PCE is forecast at 3.6%, up from 3.4% in the previous month. A hot reading could lift hike bets even more.
$373 Million Wiped Out as Longs Take the Heat
CoinGlass data shows 84,772 traders were liquidated in 24 hours. Total losses hit $373.68 million.
Long positions took $219.31 million, or 58.7%. Shorts lost $154.36 million, or 41.3%.
BTC led at $96.89 million, with 55.0% of that from longs. ETH followed at $81.34 million, with shorts at 50.5%. SOL saw $13.94 million and XRP $5.51 million.
A tech stock selloff, driven by doubts over AI spending returns, added to the stress. Binance had the largest share at 45.0%. The biggest single order was a $6.53 million ETH-USDT short on Binance.
The pace may be slowing. The last 12 hours saw $169.69 million, but the last hour saw only $6.39 million.
Bitcoin Options Point Toward $78,000
Deribit data for the October 30 expiry puts BTC max pain at $78,000. That is the strike where option buyers would lose the most. Price can drift toward that level, though it does not have to.
The chance of expiring above $80,500 is below 50%, per Deribit. Call open interest is large at $90,000, $95,000, and $100,000. Puts cluster between $70,000 and $76,000.
Ethereum Options Show a More Cautious Crowd
ETH put volume is 78,961 against call volume of 62,665. That gives a put/call volume ratio of 1.26, a sign of caution. Max pain is $2,450.
Calls pile up near $2,600, while puts sit near $2,300 and $2,250.
Deribit Options (Oct 30 Expiry) | BTC | ETH |
Total Open Interest | 135,821 | 337,695 |
Call Open Interest | 89,134 | 190,414 |
Put Open Interest | 46,686 | 147,281 |
Put/Call OI Ratio | 0.52 | 0.77 |
24h Put/Call Volume Ratio | 0.78 | 1.26 |
Max Pain Price | $78,000 | $2,450 |
Notional Value | $10.86 billion | $782.13 million |
Bitcoin and ETH Price Outlook: Key Levels to Watch
These levels come from the options charts and recent price action.
Asset | Support | Resistance |
BTC | $78,000, $75,000, $70,000 | $81,500, $83,000 |
ETH | $2,300, $2,250 | $2,500, $2,600 |
If hike bets keep rising, BTC could struggle under $80,000 into month-end. A cooler PCE print might give buyers room to retest $81,500. Neither outcome is certain.
ETH may stay boxed between $2,300 and $2,600 while expiry plays out. A break on either side could speed up moves, as liquidations are still active.
Disclaimer
This article is for information only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile, and you can lose some or all of your money. Options and leveraged trading carry extra risk. Do your own research and speak with a licensed financial advisor before you make any decision.
