Bitcoin Steadies Near $81K as Traders Brace for Fed and Warsh Speech
Bitcoin is trading near $81,610 today, up 2.32% in 24 hours. The market is waiting on the Federal Reserve.
The FOMC rate decision lands at 2 PM ET. Kevin Warsh's press conference starts at 2:30 PM ET, and many traders see it as the bigger event.
BTC trades near $81,600 with a $1.63 trillion market cap
Bitcoin is up 2.32% on the day. Here is a quick look at the market.
Metric | Value |
Price | $81,610 (+2.32%) |
Market cap | $1.63T |
Circulating supply | 20.10M BTC |
Futures volume (24h) | $44.03B |
Spot volume (24h) | $3.50B |
Open interest | $54.56B |
Fed expected to hold rates, but Warsh's tone is the wild card
The two-day meeting runs October 27 to 28. The decision comes at 2 PM ET.
CME FedWatch shows a pause is likely. The current target range is 3.75% to 4.00%.
Outcome | Now | 1 Day Ago | 1 Week Ago | 1 Month Ago |
No change | 90.6% | 88.9% | 84.5% | 29.1% |
Hike to 4.00%-4.25% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 15.5% | 70.9% |
A pause looks mostly priced in. A month ago, a hike was the favorite.
CPI and PPI have both risen since the last meeting. That means inflation is getting worse, not better.
Coinbase Premium stays negative as October turns red
Bitcoin is down 4.2% for the month. CryptoQuant says the Coinbase Premium has not been positive on a single day. It is the most negative since June.
That points to US buyers sitting on the sidelines.
October is usually a strong month. This is now the second negative October in a row.
Year | October Return |
2020 | +27.6% |
2021 | +40.0% |
2022 | +5.5% |
2023 | +28.5% |
2024 | +10.9% |
2025 | -3.8% |
2026 (to Oct 25) | -4.2% |
Bitcoin ETFs add $176 million as IBIT leads
Yes, at least on October 27. SoSoValue data shows $175.99 million in net inflows.
ETF Data | Value |
Total daily net inflow | $175.99M |
Cumulative net inflow | $57.47B |
Total net assets | $103.94B (6.40% of market cap) |
IBIT daily inflow | $151.46M |
FBTC daily inflow | $24.54M |
Some funds, including Grayscale's GBTC, still show cumulative outflows.
Whale sends $35 million in BTC to Coinbase Prime
Arkham flagged whale bc1q9. It deposited 438.37 BTC ($35.38M) overnight.
The same wallet took out 615.4 BTC from Coinbase Prime Custody 16 months ago. The average price was $105,271.
At $81,610, he is down over $15M and still holds $14.31M. A deposit can mean selling, but it does not prove it.
Shorts take the hit in derivatives market
The 24-hour long/short ratio is 1.0488, a slight edge for longs. Short traders took the pain, though.
Liquidations | Total | Longs | Shorts |
1 hour | $25.11M | $99.89K | $25.01M |
24 hours | $56.10M | $4.60M | $51.51M |
Open interest is flat at $54.57B.
Realized cap rises, but follow-through is key
CryptoQuant says a renewed rise in realized cap is a good sign. It still needs follow-through.
If it holds, it could mark the early stage of a healthier market structure, like in 2023.
Technical levels: BTC range-bound between $80,000 and $84,000
BTC sits near the 20-day EMA, inside a descending channel. RSI is around 48, which is neutral.
Level | What It Marks |
$87,400 | Major resistance |
83,500-84,000 | Channel resistance |
$81,716 | 20-day EMA |
$80,763 | 50-day EMA |
80,000-80,700 | Key support zone |
$77,700 | 100-day EMA |
$76,400 | 200-day EMA |
Range trading between $80,000 and $84,000 looks likely for now.
Warsh's message could decide the next move
Here are the two cases traders are watching.
If Warsh Signals | Possible Reaction |
More rate hikes | Markets could sell off hard |
A rate pause | BTC could tap 82K-82.5K |
At the last FOMC meeting, BTC bottomed that day and rose 16% in a week. One case is not a pattern, though.
Nobody knows how the speech will land. The $80,000 level is the one to watch.
DISCLAIMER
This article is for information only. It is not financial advice. Crypto is volatile, and you can lose money. Do your own research before making any decision.
