Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Holds $77K as Whales Buy $521M Dip
Bitcoin is trading around $77,700 on Thursday, holding steady after a choppy week. The Bitcoin price prediction outlook is mixed for now, with traders watching politics, whale buying, and upcoming Fed data.
President Trump is privately weighing whether to declare the US-Iran war over, telling aides he favors the idea.
Officials believe economic pressure could force Iran's regime to dismantle its nuclear program or collapse, and aides have warned further escalation could hurt Republican midterm chances. That talk gave Bitcoin a small lift in early trading, while oil prices slipped back.
Iran has still launched retaliatory strikes on US forces, including a reported hit near Kuwait, with fighting continuing near the Strait of Hormuz, so any de-escalation would need to hold despite that backdrop.
What Is Bitcoin's Price Today?
BTC is priced at roughly $77,738, up about 0.23% on the day, after pulling back 5.82% from a local high of $81,474 on August 28 to $76,732.
Market cap sits near $1.55 trillion, with 20.07 million BTC in circulation out of a 21 million max supply, meaning over 95% of all Bitcoin has already been mined.
24-hour trading volume is $65.39 billion, open interest is $53.74 billion, and options open interest rose 1.96% to $40.14 billion.
What Do Liquidations and Long/Short Ratios Show?
The overall long/short ratio sits at 0.9673, slightly bearish, though Binance and OKX top-trader ratios lean more bullish, near 1.26 and 1.25.
Liquidations totaled $52.29 million over 24 hours, split $28.13 million long and $24.16 million short. In the shorter 4-hour window, shorts took the bigger hit at $8.26 million versus $2.54 million long, pointing to choppy two-way trading.
Why Are Bitcoin Whales Still Buying?
Despite the dip, large holders have not backed off. On-chain data from Santiment shows whales added about 6,765 BTC during the pullback, worth close to $521 million, a sign of confidence that the drop is temporary.
Bitcoin ETFs echoed that trend. Net inflows hit $101.1 million on September 2, reversing a $236.5 million outflow the day before. BlackRock's IBIT led with $115.4 million, with Bitwise and Grayscale also pulling in fresh money.
Does Bitcoin's Rally Match Investor Sentiment?
Not quite. Bitcoin closed August up around 25%, its strongest August since 2017, but Santiment's Sentiment Balance averaged only +32 from August 19 to 31, well below July's +72, partly a hangover from a Coldcard seed exploit that crushed sentiment to -540 in early August.
Even at the rally's peak, the highest daily reading was +73, far below July's +183, suggesting price ran ahead of crowd excitement.
What Do the Charts Say About Bitcoin's Next Move?
On the 4-hour chart, BTC price is moving inside a descending channel, rejected near $79,500 to $80,000 more than once, with support near $76,000 to $76,500. RSI near 48 points to neutral momentum.
A break below $76,000 could open the door to $75,000, then $74,000. A confirmed close above $80,000 would flip the setup bullish, targeting $81,000 to $82,000.
Some analysts compare this to Bitcoin's 2023 bottom, when price failed three times at channel resistance before a 20% pullback, then broke out on the fourth attempt. BTC has already been rejected once this time, so a dip toward $70,000 before any breakout is possible.
BTC Price Snapshot
Metric | Value |
Current Price | ~$77,738 |
Local High (Aug 28) | $81,474 |
Market Cap | $1.55T |
Circulating Supply | 20.07M BTC |
24h Volume | $65.39B |
Open Interest | $53.74B |
Long/Short Ratio | 0.9673 |
24h Liquidations | $52.29M |
What Could Move Bitcoin Price This Week?
US payroll data lands Friday, ahead of the Fed's September 16 meeting. Markets price a 62.3% chance of a 25 basis point hike to 375-400 bps, versus 37.7% odds of a hold and no priced-in chance of a cut.
Fed Meeting | Current Rate | Hold Probability | Hike Probability | Cut Probability |
Sept 16, 2026 | 350-375 bps | 37.7% | 62.3% | 0.0% |
The CLARITY Act is the bigger wildcard. A Senate cloture vote is set for September 15 and needs 60 votes, backed publicly by SEC Chair Paul Atkins. Passage could act as a fresh catalyst for Bitcoin price.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Bottom Line
Bitcoin sits in a holding pattern near $77,700, caught between whale accumulation and ETF inflows on one side, and cautious sentiment and Fed uncertainty on the other. Price action around $76,000 support and $80,000 resistance should offer more clarity soon.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
