SpaceX Stock Price Forecast: Will the Tesla-SpaceX Merger Lift SPCX?

SpaceX stock is going through a rough patch right now. Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX) touched a fresh all-time low of $110.85 this week, but the SPCX share price bounced back a bit after that.

Traders following SpaceX stock news are now watching two big things closely: a possible Tesla-SpaceX merger, and a huge share unlock coming in August.

What Is the SpaceX Stock Price Today?

The stock closed at $118.24, up 2.59% on the day. In after-hours trading, though, it slipped again, falling 1.94% to $115.95.

The 52-week range is wide, between $110.85 and $225.64. That shows just how much the stock has cooled off since its June IPO.

Why Is a Tesla-SpaceX Merger Being Talked About?

The merger buzz started during Tesla's earnings call on July 22. Elon Musk was asked directly if SpaceX and Tesla could combine one day.

Musk didn't say no. In his comments, Elon Musk noted growing overlap between Tesla and SpaceX, but said now isn't the right time to talk about a deal.

That answer was enough to get analysts talking. Gene Munster, founder of Deepwater Asset Management, raised his own Tesla-SpaceX merger probability estimate from 80% to 90% after the call.

JPMorgan, on the other hand, is more cautious. The bank has pointed to serious regulatory hurdles that could slow down or block any deal between the two companies.

How Big Is Google's SpaceX Holding?

Alphabet, the parent company of Google, revealed its Google SPCX holding includes $94.1 billion worth of SPCX shares. Google was an early backer of SPCX, and that stake has helped its own profits grow in recent quarters.

Most of those shares come with restrictions. About $80 billion is under short-term sale limits, while $14.1 billion is locked up through the third quarter of next year.

SPCX Price Prediction: What Does the Chart Show?

Looking at the 1-hour chart, the stock formed a Morning Star candlestick pattern along with a flag breakout. That's often seen as an early sign of a possible bounce.

But there's a catch. The EMA lines are still pointing down, and the price remains below all major moving averages. That means the overall downtrend has not been broken yet.

If it can't hold above $119-$120, the current bounce might just be a pause before more selling.

When Is SpaceX's Next Earnings Date?

SPCX will report its first earnings as a public company on August 4, after markets close. A live audio webcast will run at 3:30 p.m. CT on the investor relations site.

This date matters a lot. It also kicks off a lock-up period that lets early insiders start selling shares sooner than the usual 180-day wait.

What Is the SpaceX Share Unlock and Why Does It Matter?

Two full trading days after earnings, on August 6, insiders can sell 20% of their locked-up stock. That's roughly 911.5 million shares hitting the market at once.

An extra 10% could also unlock if the stock closes at least 30% above its IPO price for five out of the ten trading days leading up to earnings.

Short interest has already climbed past 30%, according to recent trading data. That's a lot of bearish bets stacked up ahead of a busy news week.

Is the Starship Delay Adding Pressure?

SpaceX pushed back the 13th Starship test flight to July 24, citing bad weather. Delays like this tend to weigh on sentiment, especially with earnings so close.

Between the Starship delay, the share unlock, and rising short interest, the stock is heading into a genuinely make-or-break stretch.

Are Big Investors Still Buying SpaceX Stock?

Yes. Cathie Wood's Ark Invest bought 121,384 shares of SPCX stock, according to a recent trade disclosure. That's one sign some institutional money still sees value at these lower levels.

SpaceX Stock Trading Data Snapshot

Trading volume across major exchanges has stayed heavy, with over $1.11 billion in volume reported on one leading platform alone. Total liquidations over the past 24 hours reached roughly $7.90 million, with longs taking the bigger hit.

This kind of volume and liquidation activity usually points to high volatility, which fits with what the chart is showing.

SPCX Stock Price Prediction: Final Thoughts

SpaceX stock sits at a genuine crossroads. The Tesla-SpaceX merger talk, Google's massive SpaceX holding, and Ark Invest's fresh buy all point to long-term confidence from some corners of the market.

At the same time, the technical picture is still bearish, and the upcoming share unlock could bring fresh selling pressure. Whether the stock breaks above resistance or slides toward $100 may depend heavily on what the August 4 earnings report shows.

This SpaceX stock price prediction will likely shift once earnings data comes out.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Stock and cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and prices can change rapidly. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.